Harris Shows Signs of Gains in Post-Debate Polls - The New York Times
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
It could be another week until the full scope of possible gains is evident.
Kamala Harris has already gained about one percentage point nationwide since the debate. Credit...Kenny Holston/The New York Times
By Nate Cohn
Sept. 16, 2024
It's still too soon to judge the fallout from the presidential debate, but the polls already suggest that Kamala Harris might be poised to gain.
The initial surveys of people who watched the debate found that most viewers thought she won, and the candidate deemed the winner in the post-debate surveys usually tends to gain in the polls.
The first few polls taken entirely since Tuesday's debate show her faring better than polls taken beforehand. If history is any guide, it will still be a few more days — perhaps another week — until the full scope of any post-debate bounce becomes evident.
This time around, there's another unpredictable element: what the authorities have described as a second attempted assassination of Donald J. Trump. There's no way of knowing yet how voters might react, but if it refocuses the conversation away from the debate, it could put an early dent in Ms. Harris's bounce.
State of the race
Overall, Vice President Harris leads Mr. Trump by three percentage points nationwide, according to The New York Times's polling average. Already, that's about a point better for Ms. Harris than our average Wednesday.
The contest is even tighter in the critical battleground states, where no candidate leads by even a single percentage point in enough states to win the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
| Polling Leader | If Polls miss like they did in … | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2020 | ||
| U.S.National | +3Harris | +2Harris | +1Trump |
| Wis.Wisconsin | +3Harris | +5Harris | +7Trump |
| Nev.Nevada | +2Harris | +4Harris | +2Trump |
| Mich.Michigan | +1Harris | +7Harris | +4Trump |
| Pa.Pennsylvania | +1Harris | +6Harris | +4Trump |
| N.C.North Carolina | +1Harris | +2Harris | +3Trump |
| Ariz.Arizona | Even | +3Harris | +3Trump |
| Ga.Georgia | +1Trump | +1Trump | +2Trump |
Includes polling as of Sept. 16. See the latest polling averages "
Electoral votes counting only states where a candidate leads by 3 or more:
226Harris219Trump
Electoral votes if current polling translates perfectly to results (it won't):
292Harris246Trump
Electoral votes if state polls miss in the same way they did in 2020:
226Harris312Trump
Electoral votes if state polls miss in the same way they did in 2022:
303Harris235Trump Includes polling as of Sept. 16. See the latest polling averages "
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It's about time. Women have served as political leaders of nations such as at least the UK, India, Canada, New Zealand, Barbados, Israel and now one will take office Oct 1 in Mexico.
And here too...Julia Gillard aka (Dillard) she wasn't called that for nothing..
One of our worst PM's ever...and we have a few female State Premiers and quite frankly they are just as bad as she was...
Very few women have the fortitude to be PM or President so will be interesting to see what happens... hopefully the US do..
I don't know how competent the others were, but Canada's Kim Campbell blew it and served for only 5 months or so, and you can't deny how strong the "Iron Lady" Margaret Thatcher was, and Golda Meir was a great leader.
Swifties for Kamala raised $40K off Trump's X post this week.