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RFK Jr. may help Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in some swing states: Polling

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  evilone  •  one week ago  •  9 comments

By:   Hanna Trudo (The Hill)

RFK Jr. may help Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in some swing states: Polling
Conventional wisdom had been that the independent would hurt Biden more than Trump, but a recent poll suggests that may not be the case in some key states.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T


by Hanna Trudo - 06/05/24 10:32 AM ET

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. narrowly helps President Biden and hurts former President Trump's chances at winning the White House in key battleground states, a survey rleased this week found.

Polling from Mainstreet Research, PolCom Lab and Florida Atlantic University showed Trump with a slight lead over Biden in a head-to-head race in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But when Kennedy is added to the mix, Biden takes the lead in the states, according to the poll.

Kennedy, an independent candidate, is not currently on the ballot in either state, which along with Michigan are seen as crucial to Biden's hopes for reelection.

In Biden's home state of Pennsylvania, the incumbent is trailing Trump 45 percent to 43 percent head-to head. But he leads 41 percent to Trump's 39 percent when Kennedy — who pulls in 8 percent — is a choice.

In Wisconsin, a top target for Democrats, Trump edges out Biden 41 percent to 40 percent in a two-person race, but Biden takes a 7-point lead, 38 percent to 31 percent, when Kennedy is a third option, taking 13 percent.

Another notable swing state, Michigan, shows Biden at 41 percent, Trump at 39 percent and Kennedy at 11 percent of support. Both Trump and Biden are at 45 percent without Kennedy in the race.

The survey sampled 2,068 voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan from May 30-31.

Democrats and Republicans are both fearful that Kennedy will harm their chances of success in November. Conventional wisdom from both sides had been that the environmental lawyer blunts Biden more than Trump, though that theory has softened in recent weeks.

Pollsters and operatives monitoring the third-party dynamic believe the race is highly fluid, with Kennedy being an unpredictable element in the fall. They note his voter base is harder to identify for a variety of reasons, including his strength with younger and independent voters who tend to be more volatile.

Tags 2024 presidential election Donald Trump Joe Biden Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

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This article is about polling numbers only. Stay on topic or risk having your comments removed. Relitigating legal issues OR trash talking will get your comments removed.


 

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evilone
Professor Guide
1  seeder  evilone    one week ago

I've said this when RFK Jr started his campaign, "He has more in common with the right-wing populists than he does with the left-wing populists." He's been polling nationally just over 9% if I remember correctly. 

As it stands, and the article points it out, he is not yet on the ballot in all states. Where he will stand in November is nothing but conjecture at this time.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1  Vic Eldred  replied to  evilone @1    one week ago
"He has more in common with the right-wing populists than he does with the left-wing populists."

I don't buy that.

Not long ago he said that he would allow women to have abortions at full term.

He later walked that back.

 
 
 
evilone
Professor Guide
1.1.1  seeder  evilone  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1    one week ago
I don't buy that.

You don't have to for it to be true. He's in line with MAGA Republicans on the border, promised to investigate any wrongdoing in the prosecution of J6ers, and his anti-science/anti-vaxx stance all appeal to the MAGA Republican crowd.

His anti-vaxx and environmental stances align with the left-wing populists.

 
 
 
evilone
Professor Guide
2  seeder  evilone    one week ago

National polling from fivethirtyeight

800

The two party candidates are pretty much locked in a statistical tie and have been for most of the year. One would have to dive deep in the weeds to find any good/bad news for either of them. 

800

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
3  JBB    one week ago

Worm Brain RFK Jr has no appeal with Democrats but apparently he is attractive some of those who think Trump is not nutters enough...

 
 
 
evilone
Professor Guide
3.1  seeder  evilone  replied to  JBB @3    one week ago
Worm Brain RFK Jr has no appeal with Democrats

His anti-vaxx and environmental stances align with the left-wing populists. The anti-Biden far left wing may pull a few votes in protest, but the numbers don't look significant right now.

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
3.1.1  devangelical  replied to  evilone @3.1    one week ago

put him in the also ran category. statistically speaking, trump has a growing math problem with voters, and his chances are getting worse.

 
 
 
Greg Jones
Professor Participates
4  Greg Jones    one week ago

RFK Jr won't be a factor.

 
 
 
evilone
Professor Guide
4.1  seeder  evilone  replied to  Greg Jones @4    one week ago

You are most likely correct, but at this point its all speculation. 

 
 

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