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History confirms Republicans rejected a once-in-a-lifetime immigration opportunity | The Hill

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  jbb  •  one month ago  •  19 comments

By:   C. Stewart Verdery Jr. (The Hill)

History confirms Republicans rejected a once-in-a-lifetime immigration opportunity | The Hill
Border hawks may be cheering the demise of the Senate bill, but they will regret it.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T


by C. Stewart Verdery Jr., opinion contributor - 02/10/24 10:00 AM ET
by C. Stewart Verdery Jr., opinion contributor - 02/10/24 10:00 AM ET

Immigration politics may be the most important to winning and losing elections in America. Add the substance around immigration reform and border security and it is one of the most complicated policy issues facing America as well.

Put the two together and it is no surprise that politicians find passing immigration legislation a nearly impossible slog.

But withthe bipartisan 2024 Senate proposal having died a quick and painful death on the Senate floor, it is worth a trip down memory lane to understand the enormous opportunity conservative advocates for tighter border security are missing in their opposition.

As part of a broader spending bill to provide assistance to Ukraine and Israel, the Biden administration proposed significant new funding for immigration enforcement along the southern border. When congressional Republicans proposed adding major changes to asylum standards and other provisions to crack down on the flow of undocumented migrants, for the first time in 20 years, congressional Democrats and a Democratic president agreed to support enforcement legislation without adding legalization provisions.

While the bill is complex, the most important enforcement policies would be a massive change to the very lenient initial asylum standard and investments in asylum case adjudication. The current system using a "credible fear" standard allows the overwhelming majority of cases to proceed even though the vast majority of cases eventually will be denied. Worse, ashortage of immigration judges and related court infrastructure means those eventual denials are coming a half-decade after arrival.

If the goal was to entice undeserving applicants, you couldn't design a worse combination of policy and resources. In comparison, the bipartisan proposal is designed to deny more cases at the initial stage and get final decisions on all cases in a matter of months.

For immigration hardliners, the moment of leverage had finally arrived: More enforcement without amnesty. However, instead of seizing this likely once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, House Republicans and former President Trump argued that the bill was not the hardliner wish list they preferred and successfully convinced most Senate Republicans to block the bill.

This one-sided deal that favors Republican enforcement policy is unlikely to ever reappear. There has never been another moment this century when Democrats agreed to enforcement legislation without meaningful legalization provisions. Nor have they ever agreed to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to anywhere near the level needed to locate and deport millions of individuals already in the country illegally.

With the brief exception of 2009-2010 when Democrats had the policymaking trifecta controlling the White House, House of Representatives and 60 votes in the Senate, neither party has held sufficient control to dictate the terms of immigration reform. Thus, we have seen unsuccessful effort after effort to find some combination of policies that would satisfy enough members of each party to reach enactment.

In reviewing the failed history of immigration efforts, remember that neither party was ever going to get their preferred solutions without some compromise:

  • 2005-2006: House Republicanspassed an enforcement-only bill generally known as the Sensenbrenner bill and the Senate passed the bipartisan Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act, but the bills are never conferenced or reconciled.
  • 2007: The Senate debated the "Kennedy-Kyl" Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007for around a month on the floor but failed to surmount a Republican filibuster.
  • 2013: The Senatepassedthe Border Security, Economic Opportunity and Immigration Modernization Act, a massive and comprehensive bill, with 67 votes, but the Republican-controlled House did not take it up.
  • 2018: The government shut down after negotiation between President Trump and Senate Democrats to pair Dreamer legislation with enforcement provisions failed.

The politics that have killed this deal in 2024 are clear. If Republicans pass legislation that improves the border chaos that's plagued President Biden's presidency, they ease a political albatross around his neck in the middle of a presidential campaign. But just as most Republicans look back at 2006, 2007, 2013 and 2018 as missed chances to improve our border policies, we surely will look back at this 2024 bill as the biggest whiff.

Conservatives holding out for a better outcome are ignoring recent history that Democratic presidents have won the popular vote in every election this century except for one while congressional control has been narrow and divided. Our future politics are much more likely to produce an outcome that passes a legalization and enforcement compromise, not a hardline Republican wish list.

This 2024 window for an enforcement-only bill is briefly open and will likely never reappear. Border hawks may be cheering the demise of the Senate bill, but they will regret it.

C. Stewart Verdery Jr. served as assistant secretary for Homeland Security in the George W. Bush administration and as general counsel to the Senate Republican Whip. He is the CEO of Monument Advocacy and a member of the Council on National Security and Immigration.


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JBB
Professor Principal
1  seeder  JBB    one month ago

original

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
2  Vic Eldred    one month ago

It isn't going to sell. The House had an immigration bill called HR 2 which democrats rejected.

In the meantime, the open border is Joe Biden's chosen policy, and everyone knows it.

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
2.1  seeder  JBB  replied to  Vic Eldred @2    one month ago

The Senate had a bill even conservative gop Senators admitted gave them everything they had ever wanted, but no! A handful of MAGA loyalist blocked that because starting to solve immigration now is not in Trump's and MAGA's real political interest for 2024...

That is what history will say!

original

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
2.1.1  Sparty On  replied to  JBB @2.1    one month ago

[deleted][]

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
2.1.2  Vic Eldred  replied to  JBB @2.1    one month ago

GLesx5RWIAEnzXI?format=jpg&name=small

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
2.1.3  devangelical  replied to  Vic Eldred @2.1.2    one month ago

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
2.1.4  Tessylo  replied to  Vic Eldred @2.1.2    one month ago

Oh please.  What utter bullshit

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
2.1.5  Sparty On  replied to  devangelical @2.1.3    one month ago

The real train wreck will occur if Trump wins.    The melt down from the left WILL achieve epic proportions never seen before and after 2016.    That is really saying something.

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
2.2  Tessylo  replied to  Vic Eldred @2    one month ago

No, your turd hero the liar former 'president' told his spineless gop/gqp mushroom suckers to block any bill - AND THOSE WHO RESIDE IN REALITY KNOW IT

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
2.3  devangelical  replied to  Vic Eldred @2    one month ago

[deleted][]

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
2.3.1  Tessylo  replied to  devangelical @2.3    one month ago

[deleted][]

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
2.3.2  Sparty On  replied to  devangelical @2.3    one month ago

[deleted][]

 
 
 
devangelical
Professor Principal
2.3.3  devangelical  replied to  Tessylo @2.3.1    one month ago

jrSmiley_100_smiley_image.jpg

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
2.3.4  Texan1211  replied to  devangelical @2.3    one month ago
everyone that's an unamerican, election denying, distributor of russian propaganda.

Democrats keep pushing this Russia, Russia, Russia nonsense--but won't even LOOK at how much the Biden Family raked in from Russians?

LMAO

 
 
 
Greg Jones
Professor Participates
3  Greg Jones    one month ago

What good is immigration reform when Biden continues to ignore and fails to follow existing laws

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
3.1  Texan1211  replied to  Greg Jones @3    one month ago
What good is immigration reform when Biden continues to ignore and fails to follow existing laws

That is sadly the part many seem to not get.

Always calling for more laws, but weak on enforcing them.

Democrats are not to be trusted with border security. We see what happens when they are in charge.

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
Professor Principal
3.1.1  Sean Treacy  replied to  Texan1211 @3.1    one month ago

The enforcement parts of this bill were at the presidents discretion. He already refuses to use the discretionary powers he has, so why would anyone expect him to use new, more limited discretionary powers?

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
3.1.2  Texan1211  replied to  Sean Treacy @3.1.1    one month ago
so why would anyone expect him to use new, more limited discretionary powers?

Well, there are some pretty gullible people out there..........................

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
4  Texan1211    one month ago

Everyone but the most die-hard Biden sycophants know why Biden finally pushed something through on the border--his polling numbers looked really bad, so he was just trying to improve them. Biden and Harris aren't serious about it, they just want another 4 years. They don't give a DAMN about the border.

 
 

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