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Immigration Will Boost the US Economy by $7 Trillion Through 2034: CBO

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  jbb  •  3 weeks ago  •  51 comments

By:   Matthew Fox (Business Insider)

Immigration Will Boost the US Economy by $7 Trillion Through 2034: CBO
"More workers mean more output and that in turn leads to additional tax revenue," CBO director Phillip Swagel said.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T


Matthew Fox 2024-02-08

  • The US economy will grow by an extra $7 trillion over the next decade, according to estimates from the CBO.
  • The CBO said the additional growth will be driven by an influx of immigrants.
  • "More workers mean more output and that in turn leads to additional tax revenue," CBO director Phillip Swagel said.

The US economy will grow an additional $7 trillion over the next decade as a surge in immigration creates a larger labor force and increases demand for goods and services, according to a new estimate from the Congressional Budget Office.

The findings from the CBO reinforce commentary from economists that suggests immigration trends in the US have aided the economy in avoiding a recession, as more workers help boost productivity without causing a spike in wage inflation.

"The labor force in 2033 is larger by 5.2 million people, mostly because of higher net immigration. More workers mean more output and that in turn leads to additional tax revenue," CBO director Phillip Swagel said on Wednesday.

"As a result of those changes in the labor force, we estimate that from 2023 to 2034, GDP will be greater by about $7 trillion and revenues will be greater by about $1 trillion than they would have been otherwise," Swagel added.

The CBO also found that net immigration has risen since 2022, and it expects it to remain elevated through 2026.

The US labor force is expected to surge over the next decade thanks to strong net immigration trends. CBO

America's surge in immigration, while a hot-button political issue, does highlight one of its biggest strengths: its ability to avoid the ticking demographic time bombs of other developed countries, such as Japan, which is facing economic challenges due to its massive aging population.

The CBO said that a large portion of immigrants coming to America are in the prime-working ages of 25 through 54, which tends to benefit the economy significantly as they continue to work for years after their arrival.

Another knock-on effect of America's net immigration trends is its impact on the housing market, since it should result in continued demand for new homes.

"Because immigrants tend to live with family or friends initially and form their own house holds gradually, high rates of immigration from 2022 to 2026 will continue to stimulate construction of new homes during the second half of the 2020s," the CBO said in its outlook report.

Immigration trends are also on the mind of Fed chairman Jerome Powell, who told "60 Minutes" last week that in the long-term, "the US economy has benefited from immigration."

"Immigrants come in and they tend to work at a rate that is at or above that for non-immigrants. Immigrants who come to the country tend to be in the workforce at a slightly higher level than Americans do," Powell said.


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JBB
Professor Principal
1  seeder  JBB    3 weeks ago

Immigration is a net plus for the United States.

A Seven Trillion Dollar Net Plus Economically...

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
1.1  Texan1211  replied to  JBB @1    2 weeks ago

When????

We just had to borrow a trillion last year after Biden has allowed a million in!

 
 
 
bugsy
Professor Participates
1.2  bugsy  replied to  JBB @1    2 weeks ago

UM, that is true of LEGAL immigrants.

The illegal ones that the confused old geezer in the White House are milking taxpayers of hundreds of billions of dollars in free giveaways, with, as reported, about 60 percent of them are on some form of welfare.

Did you know that LEGAL immigrants are not allowed to come to this country if they cannot show that they will not be a ward of the government?

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
2  Split Personality    3 weeks ago

28.6 million Baby Boomers will start retiring and dying .\this year.

Average deaths per year have been averaging 2.6 million per year but will increase to 4 million by 2050.

 
 
 
Kavika
Professor Principal
3  Kavika     3 weeks ago

As opposed to countries like China, Japan, South Korea that allow little if any immigration. All are suffering from stifled growth and is much of Europe.

 
 
 
Ronin2
Professor Quiet
4  Ronin2    3 weeks ago

How much are those illegal immigrants costing the US right now?

By the way no one is against legal immigration- illegal immigration is something completely different.

Key Highlights

  • At the start of 2023, the net cost of illegal immigration for the United States – at the federal, state, and local levels – was at least $150.7 billion.

  • FAIR arrived at this number by subtracting the tax revenue paid by illegal aliens – just under $32 billion – from the gross negative economic impact of illegal immigration, $182 billion.

  • In 2017, the estimated net cost of illegal migration was approximately $116 billion. In just 5 years, the cost to Americans has increased by nearly $35 billion.

  • Illegal immigration costs each American taxpayer $1,156 per year ($957 after factoring in taxes paid by illegal aliens).

  • Each illegal alien or U.S.-born child of illegal aliens costs the U.S. $8,776 annually.

  • Evidence shows that tax payments by illegal aliens cover only around a sixth of the costs they create at all levels in this country.

  • A large percentage of illegal aliens who work in the underground economy frequently avoid paying any income tax at all.

  • Many illegal aliens actually receive a net cash profit through refundable tax credit programs.

A new congressional   report   that includes federal and state figures reveals the shocking price of supporting an estimated 16.8 to 29 million illegal aliens currently living in the United States. The “net cost of illegal immigration is greater than the annual gross domestic product (GDP) of 15 different states,” according to the lengthy report, published this week by the House Committee on Homeland Security. “Illegal immigration costs every American taxpayer a net average of $956—or $1,156 before the taxes paid by illegal aliens are factored in.”

Healthcare is among the biggest expenses with Medicaid costs for “emergency services for undocumented aliens” exceeding $12.4 billion in the last two years, according to figures provided to committee members by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. In fiscal year 2022, which ended in September, improper Medicaid payouts across the U.S. totaled more than $80 billion with around $8 billion going to illegal aliens. In New York City hospitals recorded about 30,000 visits by illegal immigrants in the past year along with approximately 300 births. A Yuma County, Arizona lawmaker recently testified before Congress that the maternity ward and emergency room at Yuma Regional Medical Center has incurred over $26 million in uncompensated costs for illegal immigrants.

Housing migrants is another huge expense that is forecasted to reach as much as $451 billion, according to figures cited in the congressional report. New York City alone is on track to spend over $12 billion by 2023 to provide shelter for tens of thousands of illegal aliens that have arrived since spring 2022. Chicago is spending north of $20 million a month to “house and support” illegal aliens and Washington D.C. is doling out more than $52 million to house the large groups of migrants that have settled into the capital area recently. “Because [DHS Secretary Alejandro] Mayorkas refuses to follow the law requiring him to detain and remove illegal aliens, towns and cities across the country have been forced to pick up the costs of housing and providing shelter for the hundreds of thousands that have been released into their communities,” the report states. “This reality has been documented everywhere from small towns thousands of miles from the border, all the way to America’s largest cities.”

Education and law enforcement are two other major expenses for the U.S. government, states, and local municipalities nationwide. Nearly four million illegal aliens attend public schools around the country and most receive special services for Limited English Proficiency (LEP) costing American taxpayers nearly $59 billion. New York City alone is spending around $440 million to educate about 11,500 illegal aliens who will likely remain in the system next year. Police expenditures provided by the National Institute of Corrections reveal that illegal immigrants cost states nearly $9 billion in 2022 with judicial expenses around $3.72 billion and prison costs about $6.2 billion. Department of Justice (DOJ) statistics cited in the report disclose that 25,000 criminal aliens are in federal prisons at an annual price tag of approximately $40,000 per incarcerated individual, which means taxpayers are doling out nearly $1 billion to lock up criminal illegal aliens.

Other migrant costs include billions of dollars for transportation and welfare benefits such as food stamps. In fiscal year 2022 the government spent around $5.8 billion to provide millions of illegal immigrants with food stamps, according to figures provided in the new congressional report. Another welfare program known as Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) that gives low-income pregnant women and their children up to the age of five nutritious food disperses over $1.3 billion in benefits each year to illegal immigrants. Transportation costs listed in the document include more than $75 million in Texas to transfer migrants from the state, around $3.5 million for dozens of buses that departed Arizona to Washington D.C. and $12 million to the Florida Department of Transportation for illegal alien relocation. Additionally, the federal government spent at least $340 million transporting illegal immigrants into the interior last year and $660 million to relocate alien family units and minors, which are classified as Unaccompanied Alien Children (UAC).

Maybe the CBO should factor in the costs of all of these low skill illegal immigrants flooding the US markets that need to be provided for.

 
 
 
Kavika
Professor Principal
4.1  Kavika   replied to  Ronin2 @4    3 weeks ago

Nowhere in the article is illegal immigration mentioned. 

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
4.2  Split Personality  replied to  Ronin2 @4    3 weeks ago

FAIR

extremeright021.pnghttps://mediabiasfactcheck.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/extremeright021-300x34.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px" > MBFCLow.pnghttps://mediabiasfactcheck.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/MBFCLow-300x108.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 357px) 100vw, 357px" >


QUESTIONABLE SOURCE

The Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) - Bias and Credibility - Media Bias/Fact Check (mediabiasfactcheck.com)

A far right "think tank"...as is 

Judicial Watch

extremeright051.pnghttps://mediabiasfactcheck.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/extremeright051-300x34.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px" > MBFCLow.pnghttps://mediabiasfactcheck.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/MBFCLow-300x108.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 357px) 100vw, 357px" >


QUESTIONABLE SOURCE

Judicial Watch – Bias and Credibility - Media Bias/Fact Check (mediabiasfactcheck.com)

As opposed to the source, Business Insider

leftcenter06.pnghttps://mediabiasfactcheck.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/leftcenter06-300x34.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px" > MBFCMostlyFactual.pnghttps://mediabiasfactcheck.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/MBFCMostlyFactual-300x108.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 356px) 100vw, 356px" >


LEFT-CENTER BIAS

Business Insider - Bias and Credibility - Media Bias/Fact Check (mediabiasfactcheck.com)

Places like CIS, FAIR and Judicial Watch just don't spread misinformation, they lie about the facts to support their lies.

 
 
 
charger 383
Professor Silent
5  charger 383    3 weeks ago

Lower population numbers will reduce causes of climate change

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
5.1  Tessylo  replied to  charger 383 @5    3 weeks ago

There you go again - this has nothing to do with immigration

 
 
 
charger 383
Professor Silent
5.1.1  charger 383  replied to  Tessylo @5.1    3 weeks ago

Immigration adds to population in the country that lets them in and therefore increases pollution that country is blamed for. So yes it does.   

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
5.1.2  Tessylo  replied to  charger 383 @5.1.1    3 weeks ago

No, it doesn't.

 
 
 
charger 383
Professor Silent
5.1.3  charger 383  replied to  Tessylo @5.1.2    3 weeks ago

So climate change is not caused by people? 

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
5.1.4  Tessylo  replied to  charger 383 @5.1.3    2 weeks ago

I didn't say that, I never said that, it's dishonest for you and Just Jim to imply that I said that (he implied the last time), this time and another time you pulled this nonsense.

 
 
 
Right Down the Center
Junior Guide
5.1.5  Right Down the Center  replied to  Tessylo @5.1.4    2 weeks ago

What does it mean to you when someone says "Immigration adds to population in the country that lets them in and therefore increases pollution" and you say "No, it doesn't."

 
 
 
charger 383
Professor Silent
5.1.6  charger 383  replied to  Tessylo @5.1.4    2 weeks ago

I did not say that you did. I asked a question based on what you said.  

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
5.1.7  Sparty On  replied to  Tessylo @5.1.4    2 weeks ago

[deleted]

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
5.1.8  Sparty On  replied to  Sparty On @5.1.7    2 weeks ago

[Deleted]

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
5.1.9  Sparty On  replied to  Sparty On @5.1.8    2 weeks ago

[Deleted]

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
5.1.10  Texan1211  replied to  Tessylo @5.1.2    2 weeks ago

No, immigration doesn't add to the population???!

w h a t?

How does that math work?

No, people don't contribute to pollution??!?

I guess its all the fault of animals despite what we have all been taught.

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
6  seeder  JBB    3 weeks ago

Fact- Immigration has always been a net positive for the US economy!

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
6.1  Sparty On  replied to  JBB @6    2 weeks ago

Fact - illegal immigration is still illegal.

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
6.1.1  seeder  JBB  replied to  Sparty On @6.1    2 weeks ago

Regardless, legal or not, immigrants are an economic positive...

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
6.1.2  Sparty On  replied to  JBB @6.1.1    2 weeks ago

Tell that to border states and some big sanctuary cities.    

They might disagree.

 
 
 
GregTx
PhD Guide
6.1.3  GregTx  replied to  Sparty On @6.1.2    2 weeks ago

Exactly, 

Denver mayor announces reduction in city services to offset migrant costs

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
6.1.4  Texan1211  replied to  Sparty On @6.1.2    2 weeks ago

Didn't a Democrat let the truth slip out the other day?

Something about immigrants being Democrats' priority???

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
6.1.5  Sparty On  replied to  Texan1211 @6.1.4    2 weeks ago

Yeah, another blamed Republicans.

It’s pretty amazing don’t you think that Democrats never seem to be wrong on anything.

 
 
 
bugsy
Professor Participates
6.1.6  bugsy  replied to  JBB @6.1.1    2 weeks ago
legal or not

Show us proof that illegal immigrants are an economic positive

 
 
 
Right Down the Center
Junior Guide
6.2  Right Down the Center  replied to  JBB @6    2 weeks ago
Fact- Immigration has always been a net positive for the US economy!

Then the sanctuary cities should be ecstatic to let in all the illegals since it will help the state economy too.

 
 
 
Gazoo
Junior Silent
6.2.1  Gazoo  replied to  Right Down the Center @6.2    2 weeks ago

Yeah, so why are they all bitching, pissing, n moaning about the numbers they are getting? You’d think the mayors of these shitho, er, sanctuary cities would be thinking”wooohoooooo, we’re gonna have the best economy in the history of economies because we’re getting thousands of illegals, send me more abbott”.

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
6.3  Texan1211  replied to  JBB @6    2 weeks ago
Fact- Immigration has always been a net positive for the US economy!

Okay, will you now let the Democratic Party officials in charge of sanctuaries know so they can quit bitching about a few immigrants and begging Traitor Joe for funds when your claim is they don't NEED any more funding because immigrants are a net plus?

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
Professor Principal
7  Sean Treacy    2 weeks ago

recession, as more workers help boost productivity without causing a spike in wage inflation.

drives the cost of housing up and keeps wages down. No wonder the party of Wall Street loves immigration. 

 
 
 
mocowgirl
Professor Quiet
7.1  mocowgirl  replied to  Sean Treacy @7    2 weeks ago
No wonder the party of Wall Street loves immigration. 

Absolutely.  The Wall Streeters frame this as being "good" for the economy.  Really?  If immigration is so great for the economy then why did the US have a massive financial meltdown in 2008 due in part to shady loan practices to "immigrants" who really did not qualify for loans?  

Immigration lowers wages.  Wall Street gains.  Working class loses.  Nothing new.

Yes, Immigration Hurts American Workers - POLITICO Magazine

Both low- and high-skilled natives are affected by the influx of immigrants. But because a disproportionate percentage of immigrants have few skills, it is low-skilled American workers, including many blacks and Hispanics, who have suffered most from this wage dip. The monetary loss is sizable. The typical high school dropout earns about $25,000 annually. According to census data, immigrants admitted in the past two decades lacking a high school diploma have increased the size of the low-skilled workforce by roughly 25 percent. As a result, the earnings of this particularly vulnerable group dropped by between $800 and $1,500 each year.

We don’t need to rely on complex statistical calculations to see the harm being done to some workers. Simply look at how employers have reacted. A decade ago, Crider Inc., a chicken processing plant in Georgia, was raided by immigration agents, and 75 percent of its workforce vanished over a single weekend. Shortly after, Crider placed an ad in the local newspaper announcing job openings at   higher   wages. Similarly, the flood of recent news reports on abuse of the H-1B visa program shows that firms will quickly dismiss their current tech workforce when they find cheaper immigrant workers.
 
 
 
mocowgirl
Professor Quiet
7.1.1  mocowgirl  replied to  mocowgirl @7.1    2 weeks ago
financial meltdown in 2008

Lot of info at the link below of how our elected officials worked for Wall Street instead of Main Street for decades prior to 2008 in order for this to happen.

Are we on the threshold of a repeat of a collapse of a housing bubble in the near future?

2007–2008 financial crisis - Wikipedia

The  2007–2008 financial crisis , or  Global Financial Crisis  ( GFC ), was the most severe worldwide  economic crisis  since the  Great Depression Predatory lending  in the form of  subprime mortgages  targeting low-income homebuyers, [1]  excessive risk-taking by global  financial institutions , [2]  a continuous buildup of  toxic assets  within banks, and the bursting of the  United States housing bubble  culminated in a " perfect storm ", which led to the  Great Recession .

he preconditioning for the financial crisis was complex and multi-causal. [5] [6] [7]  Almost two decades prior, the  U.S. Congress  had passed legislation encouraging financing for affordable housing. [8]  However, in 1999, parts of the  Glass-Steagall legislation , which had been adopted in 1933, were  repealed , permitting financial institutions to commingle their  commercial  (risk-averse) and  proprietary trading  (risk-taking) operations. [9]  Arguably the largest contributor to the conditions necessary for financial collapse was the rapid development in predatory financial products which targeted low-income, low-information homebuyers who largely belonged to  racial minorities . [10]  This market development went unattended by regulators and thus caught the  U.S. government  by surprise. [11]
 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
7.1.2  Texan1211  replied to  mocowgirl @7.1    2 weeks ago

its all smoke and mirrors.

If immigrants were such a financial boon, sanctuary Dems would be crowing about the economy in their cities instead of holding their hands out for money.

 
 
 
mocowgirl
Professor Quiet
7.1.3  mocowgirl  replied to  Texan1211 @7.1.2    2 weeks ago
If immigrants were such a financial boon, sanctuary Dems would be crowing about the economy in their cities instead of holding their hands out for money.

Definitely.

What are the jobs going unfilled that require immigrants to fill them?

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
7.1.4  Texan1211  replied to  mocowgirl @7.1.3    2 weeks ago

The standard NT reply is picking crops!

 
 
 
GregTx
PhD Guide
7.1.5  GregTx  replied to  Texan1211 @7.1.4    2 weeks ago

7 million+? That's alot of crop pickers. Perhaps it's part of their Green plan? Replace fossil fueled combines and such. Sounds alot like plantation farms...

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
7.1.6  Texan1211  replied to  GregTx @7.1.5    2 weeks ago

Yeah, and many are in cities with no crops!

 
 
 
mocowgirl
Professor Quiet
7.1.7  mocowgirl  replied to  Texan1211 @7.1.4    2 weeks ago
The standard NT reply is picking crops!

That is the standard reply of anyone who supports open borders for any of the reasons that run the gamut from virtue signaling to personal financial gain.

According to USDA data, there are a few hundred thousand immigrants employed in picking crops.

The worldwide trend is to automate most crop picking because there is a worldwide shortage of people who will pick crops.

 
 
 
mocowgirl
Professor Quiet
7.1.8  mocowgirl  replied to  GregTx @7.1.5    2 weeks ago
7 million+?

I recently saw an estimate of over 22 million illegal immigrants/migrants that currently reside in the US.

Does anyone in government have any accountability for allowing this problem to happen in the first place?

 
 
 
George
Sophomore Guide
7.1.9  George  replied to  mocowgirl @7.1.7    2 weeks ago

Especially when you can go to a sanctuary city or state and get 1000 debit card for food and free healthcare and you can steal whatever else you need without fear of prosecution.

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
7.1.10  Texan1211  replied to  mocowgirl @7.1.8    2 weeks ago

Nope!

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
7.1.11  Split Personality  replied to  mocowgirl @7.1.8    2 weeks ago

Every Administration back to WWII when we invited them, primarily on the West coast  so that the food would keep growing, to stay. It was called the Bracero Project

300,000 stayed, married and started American familie

But something like 60% of the 22 million are actually here on expired visas

Travel visas sometimes but more so, work and education visas. Why go back to some shithole country

after you're established here?

You would think that ICE would be interested, but too many of them are doctors and engineers... making $ and contributing to our tax base.

 
 
 
mocowgirl
Professor Quiet
7.1.12  mocowgirl  replied to  Split Personality @7.1.11    2 weeks ago
You would think that ICE would be interested, but too many of them are doctors and engineers... making $ and contributing to our tax base.

Are you stating that the US immigration laws do not have a path for legal citizenship for doctors and engineers and they are working in the US illegally?  Really?  If so, that should be fixed immediately.

As far as jobs that require little to no education, shouldn't immigration be limited to the areas of shortage?

Or should the US eliminate any form of immigration control because people from shithole countries should be allowed to live here?  The majority of illegal immigrants come from Mexico - which has been an industrialized nation for years with national healthcare and social systems to aid the impoverished.  Hardly a shithole country.

Because it is election year, it seems that Biden (or whoever is in charge of the border) is making some changes.

Inside the secret migrant hideout run by Catholic nuns on the Mexican border - and a dramatic ringside seat on Biden's utterly cynical under-the-radar 'crackdown' that's his last throw of the dice to cling on to the White House

Story by Todd Bensman For Dailymail.Com    •  1h
 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
7.1.13  Split Personality  replied to  mocowgirl @7.1.12    2 weeks ago

The Daily Mail?  Not fit to line the bird cages, lol.

I had two friends from Oxford, here working on nanotechnology at the University of PA,

They owned great homes in the suburbs etc., married and started families.  I sold them every kind of insurance you can think of for years.

INS sent them letters that their work visas were coming up for renewal but based on incorrect information

and that they had to leave the country and reapply from England. 

They were English nationals of Pakistani descent. They were denied readmission to the USA

so both sold everything here and moved back to merry old England, continued their research at Oxford

and Oxford gets their many, many patents and rights to their research and accomplishments.

.

The primary thing wrong with the current system in place at the border since 1952(?) is that

80% are let in knowing that 8o% of those will be denied asylum some 5 to 11 years from now

and have to be deported at that point, usually leaving behind children born here.

It's as effed up a system as Congress could ever devise and no one in Congress as expressed by the Senate

as recently as last week, has the cajones to drop the politics and fix it.

 
 
 
Sparty On
Professor Principal
8  Sparty On    2 weeks ago

How can this be?    With sanctuary cities taking money away from services being provided to legal citizens, to pay for illegal immigrants?

Something is rotten in Denmark …. Cities and communities are going into the red all over the country … how can this be?

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
8.1  Texan1211  replied to  Sparty On @8    2 weeks ago

How can this be?

Figures lie and liars figure.

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
Professor Silent
9  Mark in Wyoming     2 weeks ago

Well with the issue on the US southern border ,it also creates an issue on the northern border with Canada, I just read that they can turn away asylum seekers that cross illegally.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
10  Vic Eldred    2 weeks ago

Can't Business Insider or even any democrat distinguish between immigrants and Illegal immigrants?

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
10.1  Split Personality  replied to  Vic Eldred @10    2 weeks ago

Approximately 50% of all illegals are here on overstayed visas.

Work visas and education visas.

They stay, get great jobs, marry, pay taxes, contribute.

No Administration seems willing to deal with it.

Instead we chase the paper trail created at the southern border

that the government admits will result in a denial some 10 to 11 years afterwords.

 
 

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