The Religious Landscape is Undergoing Massive Change. It Could Decide the 2024 Election. - POLITICO
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The Religious Landscape is Undergoing Massive Change. It Could Decide the 2024 Election.
The new decennial Religion Census offers cause for hope — and alarm — for both parties.
In former Rust Belt states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, there is good news for the party — each of those states is much less religious today than it was just 10 years ago. | Jeff Swensen/Getty Images
Ryan Burge is an associate professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University and the research director for Faith Counts. He is the author of several books including The Nones: Where They Came From, Who They Are, and Where They Are Going .
One of the most significant shifts in American politics and religion just took place over the past decade and it barely got any notice: the share of Americans who associate with religion dropped by 11 points.
It's a development of tremendous impact, one that will ripple across the political landscape at every level — and especially in presidential politics. Why? Because of what it means for the God Gap — the idea that the Republican Party is the one that fights for the rights of religious individuals (primarily Christians), while Democrats have become increasingly secular over time.
People are not fleeing organized religion at equal rates across the United States. Instead, there are regions of the country where religious adherence is still relatively robust, while other areas have seen a wholesale abandoning of organized religion. We know this because of the tireless work of the Association of Statisticians of American Religious Bodies. Every 10 years, they contact as many religious denominations as they can and ask to see their official membership records. This data provides an unprecedented look at where religion is growing and declining in the United States.
The 2020 U.S. Religion Census, which was released late last year, reveals that religion is taking a beating across the middle part of the country. When comparing the rate of religious adherents in 2020 versus 2010, a fascinating pattern emerges, illuminating the political relevance of the shifting religious landscape: Democrats are making gains in areas where religion is fading (the census defines non-religious as the percentage of a county's population that does not show up on the rolls of any religious organization in that county) and Republicans are increasing their vote share in places where houses of worship are gaining new members.
When people think about where religion is declining, it's likely they point to regions like the Pacific Northwest or New England. But the drops in adherents in those parts of the country are fairly modest compared to other regions of the United States.
Across the industrial Midwest, in former Rust Belt states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania that are absolutely essential to the Democrats' firewall in 2024, there is good news for the party — each of those states is much less religious today than it was just 10 years ago.
For instance, of Michigan's 83 counties, 65 experienced a drop in religious adherents between 2010 and 2020. In populous Oakland County, which encompasses the far northern suburbs of Detroit, the share of people affiliated with a religious congregation dropped two percent in the prior decade. That drop in share coincided with a rise in Democratic fortunes: President Joe Biden won the county by 108,000 votes, more than double Barack Obama's margin eight years earlier. Oakland County points to a future where Democrats have an easier pathway to victory as churches, synagogues and mosques continue to empty out.
Another example is suburban Philadelphia's Bucks County. Pennsylvania's fourth most populous county, it's often seen as a bellwether for the national political trends. In 2012, Obama took Bucks County by the slimmest of margins, just one percentage point. In 2020, Biden won by 5 points. The share of the county aligned with a religious congregation dropped by nearly 18 percentage points between 2010 and 2020 — easily the largest drop by a populous county in the state.
But that's not to say that the Republicans don't have reasons for hope in the Religion Census.
There are 67 counties in Florida — and religious adherents grew in forty-nine of them. One of the true shocks on election night 2020 was just how poorly Biden did in Miami-Dade, which Clinton won in a landslide in 2016. Just four years after Clinton beat Trump by nearly 30 percentage points, Biden ran only seven points better than Trump. The Religion Census offers an insight into why that happened. In 2010, about 40 percent of residents of Miami-Dade County were connected to a religious group. In 2020, that was 52 percent.
Miami-Dade is something of an outlier. There are 16 counties in the United States with populations of at least two million residents. Eleven of them were less religious in 2020 than they were a decade earlier. Only one saw religion grow by at least 10 percent — Miami-Dade. The possibility of the Democrats gaining ground in Florida in the 2024 election seems like a pipe dream when considering how full houses of worship are around Miami now, compared to just a decade ago.
The other shift in American religion that may be working against the Democrats is in the state of Texas. While pundits have long believed that Texas would turn blue in the next decade — the Religion Census throws cold water on such a conjecture.
In many counties that are close to the border with Mexico, religion saw big gains between 2010 and 2020. The one that grabbed national headlines in 2020 was heavily Hispanic Zapata County. Clinton took it by 44 points in 2016, while Biden only bested Trump by 11 points in 2020. The Religion Census indicates that the share of Zapata County that was part of a congregation was 31 percent in 2010. Just 10 years later, it had risen to 65 percent — the rate of religious adherents doubled in less than a decade. Other border counties like Maverick and Starr saw religiosity more than double by 2020, as well. Nearly 90 percent of residents of Starr County voted for Obama in 2012. Biden only managed 52 percent in 2020.
It goes without saying that the dramatic rise in religion in many counties in Florida and Texas is deeply intertwined with the increasing number of Hispanic immigrants in these parts of the country. The Democrats showed real weakness with the Hispanic vote in the last several election cycles, especially in areas where religion has tremendous influence. Survey data indicates that recent immigrants to the United States report very high levels of religious attendance and prayer frequency, which predisposes this group to cultural conservatism.
Messages about the rights of transgender individuals and expanded abortion access do not resonate with these types of voters. The passage of a six-week abortion ban and the "Don't Say Gay" bill in Florida may be a strategic move by the GOP to not only make Florida and Texas even redder states, but it might also make inroads in Arizona — a state which was crucial in Biden's 2020 victory. Religious adherents rose in four of the five most populous counties in the state, including in Phoenix's Maricopa County, which gained over 300,000 new religious adherents between 2010 and 2020.
The overall sense that arises from the Religion Census is that the Democrats will continue to gain ground in suburban counties that are predominantly white and where religion is fading in size and importance. In so-called Blue Wall states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, Republicans will have a harder time winning over voters in suburban Milwaukee, Detroit, or Philadelphia with messaging about six-week abortion bans. On the other hand, the shifts in the religious landscape make it more likely that the GOP can hold off Democratic advances in important states like Texas and Florida. As more Hispanic immigrants come to those areas who are deeply religious and culturally conservative, Democratic messaging on social issues will not appeal to these types of votes.
It's hard to overstate this point. In 1990, just seven percent of Americans were non-religious — 30 years later, the "nones" had quadrupled. And new data indicates that nearly half of Generation Z has no religious affiliation. In 2020, 46 percent of the votes cast for Biden came from non-religious voters. That could easily be half of his base in a bid for reelection. Both parties have been slow to react to this changing religious landscape. Where the remaining religious Americans live and vote is a crucial question for the electoral map in 2024 and beyond. Both parties are ignoring these changing dynamics at their own peril.
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This is an interesting article on religion and politics. There are a lot of implications here that people should consider.
mainstream religion aligning itself with trump certainly didn't help their cause. not a family reunion passes where my kids don't thank me afterwards for not forcing them towards the religious indoctrination some of their cousins were subjected to.
Mainstream religion didn't align itself with Trump. It was Evangelicals. Their leadership's alignment with populism created a schism within the larger group. One that widens as populism gets even nuttier.
yeah, that's more or less what I meant, the most vocal...
It is an interesting article.
Will Democrats lose some of their base as they seem to be winning in areas not growing in religion while losing in areas that are growing it?
Black Americans are the group most likely to identify as religious adherents.
I thought so.
Both parties need to pay attention to how demographics are constantly shifting. Religion is just one aspect of the electorate too. I think the parties have been making political moves that just don't make a lot of sense outside partisan bubbles.
Yes, Black Americas are a large religious group that traditionally votes Democrat. From what I'm reading it's Hispanic immigrants that are the growing religious conservative group.
That could bode ill for Democrats, what with the large influx of Latinos and stagnant or negative growth of the black population.
Yes. You are correct. Dems need to figure out how to appeal to this demographic without losing also losing their base.
10 years from now, will Democrats have lost more Hispanics since the trend is away from the party if you are religious?
Possibly. It's something Democrats should be aware of. This also depends on how much the right alienates them with populist xenophobic policies.
claiming to be religious and acting according to religious principles is two different things.
Democrats also need to be cautious about promoting the alphabet causes.
I think that goes along with the saying, "You can fools some of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time."
I don't know what "alphabet causes" are, but you seem more concerned with Dems while the mid-terms have shown an unhealthy hemorrhaging of voters for the populist right. Instead of course correcting it would seem to me the Republicans have doubled down on the unpopular populism.
from my perspective regarding my own extended family, it's very interesting to me that the most religious and conservative segments have produced all of the LGBTQ family members.
Ok.
God could put his finger on the scale, but don’t hold your breath.
I can see why religion is losing it's hold in the Rust Belt. What has God done for them besides let them lose their jobs? All that praying for nothing.
I grew up in the Rust Belt. It was very religious especially Catholic and evangelicals trying to take members away the RCC.
The political masturbations overshadows that a religious revival is very likely in the future. Religion has been central to the human condition throughout recorded history, so religion is not going away. The census may indicate a shift away from Abrahamic religion but doesn't provide any insight into growth of what is considered pagan religion.
Secular fervor won't remove religion from society. IMO what the religion census reveals is an ongoing shift in societal religious beliefs. The secular segments of society (which, at this point, can be characterized as anti-Abrahamic) have not yet coalesced around a common set of religious beliefs. And secular activists are attempting to embed a variety of religious beliefs into government in a piecemeal manner, at present. The normal progression will be the government or state becoming the church and political leaders will assume the role of deities. There are far too many examples in history to ignore the outcome that the religion census hints at.
As the article suggests, Democrats have an edge in areas where the shift toward the state becoming the church is more pronounced. As the state assumes the mantle of religious institution, we'll see a religious revival. That may not be a revival of God based Abrahamic religion but more along the lines of an emperor deity. History does indicate that secularized religious belief trends from authoritarian to autocratic to totalitarian, followed by collapse of the state. That may last a decade, a century, or a millennia but the outcome is predictable.
So, the religion census is providing a warning. To maintain separation of church and state we need to strengthen independent institutional religion. Otherwise we'll end up with an emperor god and the fall of the United States. The secular atheists may win the battles but will ultimately lose the war.
You can see the future? I bet that's handy at parties.
This whole screed about secular government assuming the role of religion is some tin foil hat shit. Seriously! There is no indication such a thing can or will happen.
WTF?!! To maintain a separation of church and state we need to strengthen an independent state and an unbiased court. Something the right wing populists are working to weaken. A trend that can't sustain itself because of a simple matter of diversity in a country of 300M plus people.
History may flow like a river but it's still confined to its own riverbed. To predict the future of a river it's necessary to look at the riverbed and not the water.
Even the French revolution replaced a divine king with a secular emperor. The riverbed of history should have allowed a prediction of that future.
If science assumes the status of religion then embedding science in government only establishes a religious government. If nature becomes the central theme of religion then a government protecting nature becomes a church. If humans become the basis for religious belief then the government assumes the role of religious authority.
It becomes impossible to separate secular religious beliefs from secular government. The growth of secular religious beliefs can only result in a religious revival (quite possibly pagan) where government becomes the secular church. At that point it won't be possible to separate religion from government.
You keep making no sense. Science doesn't want, nor need to, assume the status of religion. You seem to have a fundamental misunderstanding of science and how it works. More, you seem to assume the worst of people who don't prescribe to a religion.
Wait. What? Before you were arguing government opposing religion (secularism) would become the church, but now you are arguing government supporting religion would become the church? Can't you keep your arguments straight? None of it makes any sense either way.
You're making even less sense. Secular religious beliefs? How about a dog iguana pet? Or a living dead relative?
Here's a clue - the people that don't want to separate religion from government aren't secular. Furthermore Secular Humanists are in no danger of taking over anything larger than a buffet.
Science doesn't have a choice. Neither does nature or humans for that matter. Society chooses its gods and religious beliefs.
There is no way to avoid the societal need for religion (or metaphysics). That's why there has never been a society or civilization without some form of unifying spiritual religious belief.
Religion is nothing more than spiritual beliefs that a society holds in common which becomes a societal institution. Secular humanism, itself, can become a religion when it is given spiritual qualities. Secular Humanists don't have choice in the matter; society determines whether or not Secular Humanism becomes a religion.